Russia's president Putin and foreign minister Lavrov have outlined Russia's new aims in Ukraine in two clearly worded statements.
They explain why Russia has ordered its forces and its proxies in East Ukraine to continue and increase shelling and reconnaissance in force in East Ukraine.
Ukraine, EU countries and US must be aware of this new strategy.
It is of utmost importance France and Germany counter this new strategy in Paris 23rd June 2015 meeting of foreign ministers of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/normandy-foreign-ministers-meeting-on-ukraine-to-be-held-in-paris-on-june-23-391315.html
Sources:
1. Putin on 19th June 2015 in St Petersburg economical forum
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49733
2. Lavrov on 19th June 2015 in interview to RBK TV
http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/16095EF0BD04F36643257E69005DC2D5
The aims are best outlined by Putin in two answers to Charlie Rose, the 2nd and 3rd of these.
Firstly: Putin states there will be no ceasefire in East Ukraine in Russia - Ukraine war if Russia's conditions are not approved by Ukraine, France and Germany. In this quote Putin directly says that the Russian weapons and troops will be gone if and only if Russia's conditions are accepted.
Putin:
"I would like to say that if this
situation is resolved by political means, no weapons will be necessary,
but it
does require goodwill and a desire to enter into direct dialogue, and we
will
assist in this. What we cannot do and would never agree to is
for someone
somewhere, anywhere, to proceed from a position of force, first using
the police (they call it militia there), then special services, and then
the armed
forces.
Before the army units and the so-called battalions – armed nationalist units – appeared on those territories,
there were no weapons there; and there still would have been none had they
tried to resolve the situation by peaceful means right from the start. Weapons
appeared there only after they started killing people using tanks, artillery,
multiple launch rocket systems and aviation. That gave rise to resistance. Once
an attempt is made to resolve the issue by political means, the weapons will be
gone."
Secondly, Putin outlines the conditions for the "political settlement".
1. Ukraine must allow Russia via its proxies to dictate its constitution.
Putin:
"The first one is constitutional
reform, and the Minsk agreements say clearly: to provide autonomy or, as they
say decentralisation of power, let it be decentralisation. This is quite clear,
our European partners, France and Germany have spelt it out and we are quite
satisfied with it, just as the representatives of Donbass are. This is one
component."
The proposals are listed here:
Summary in English
http://tass.ru/en/world/794392
Full in Russian
http://dan-news.info/official/popravki-dnr-i-lnr-v-konstituciyu-ukrainy.html
Main points include:
a) Ukraine is to be outside any military alliances, in particularly NATO, proposed as new article 17 or 18
b) The regions with special status are to have an independent armed militia
c) The regions ave independent judiciary appointed by the regions
d) The regions are to control their natural resources
e) The regions will receive subsidies from Ukraine state budget
f) The Regions are allowed to conclude international treaties
g) The regions are allowed to conduct separate referendums
Analysis on proposals by James Socor
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=43927&cHash=8662cb5150445829740407118af00284#.VYbwP0YrpnQ
Parts of the amendment mentioning Crimea and Sevastopol have since been withdrawn but other proposals remain as is.
If implemented, the proposal would create effectively Russia - controlled sub-states within Ukraine and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and in practice also EU.
2. Ukraine must give DNR, DPR autonomy on conditions set by Russia via its proxies
Putin:
"The second
thing that has to be done – the law passed earlier on the special
status of these territories – Lugansk
and Donetsk, the unrecognised republics, should be enacted. It was
passed, but
still not acted upon. This requires a resolution of the Supreme Rada –
the Ukrainian Parliament, which is also covered in the Minsk agreements.
Our
friends in Kiev have formally
complied with this decision, but simultaneously with the passing
by the Rada of the resolution to enact the law they amended the law
itself – article 10, I believe, which practically renders the action
null and void. This is a mere
manipulation, and they have to move from manipulations to real action.
And finally, they need to pass a law on municipal
elections on these territories and to have the elections themselves. All this
is spelled out in the Minsk agreements, this is something I would like to draw
your attention to, and all this should be done with the agreement of Donetsk
and Lugansk."
Ukraine has already passed the law. First version was passed already on 16th September 2014:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11099126/Ukraine-separatists-granted-self-rule-and-amnesty-as-Kiev-agrees-EU-pact.html
The problem with the law to Putin's Russian government and its proxies is that the law foresees a honest election, where the current proxy authorities cannot stand as candidates. For this reason, Russia's proxies have proposed an election procedure rigged to make their victory certain.
Analysis on local election procedure proposed by Russia proxies by James Socor:
http://www.icds.ee/blog/article/donetsk-luhansk-peoples-republics-seek-international-legitimization-through-local-elections/
3. Ukraine must grant amnesty to the Russia proxies, and effectively to Putin himself
Putin:
"The third thing is a law on amnesty.
It is impossible to have a political dialogue with people who are threatened
with criminal persecution."
Note translation mistake, instead of correct "prosecution" the translation uses "persecution".
Ukraine has already passed an amnesty law, on 16th September 2014 but it gives amnesty only to those who have not engaged in serious crimes.
Thus it does not for instance give amnesty for starting the war in Sloviansk on 12th April 2014 to Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, no amnesty for those responsible for shooting down MH17 as Igor Girkin, Alexander Borodai and all their underlings and superiors, nor amnesty for Arseni "Motorola" Pavlov and Mikhail "Givi" Tolstykh and their superiors Alexander Zakharchenko and Eduard Basurin for murdering and mistreating Ukraine POW:s.
The main reason is that any trial in this issue would bring forth evidence that the atrocities have been conducted with permission, with equipment and troops or according to direct orders from Russia's supreme commander, who is according to normal "command responsibility" doctrine responsible for actions of those under him as long as he has not seen that they are prosecuted for their crimes.
It is clear that here Putin refers, first of all, to himself.
4. Ukraine must foot the bill for the occupied area
Putin:
"Finally,
they
have to begin the economic recovery of these territories, of course.
I would
like to repeat something I have already said many times: the excuse
that ‘we do not have the money’ does
not work here. If the current authorities in Kiev believe that this is
Ukrainian territory inhabited by Ukrainian citizens who have the right
to receive, say, disability benefits or the pensions that they earned
under the existing Ukrainian law, the Kiev authorities cannot refuse
to pay, they simply
have no right to do so. They are violating their own constitution. All
this has
to be done, and not in words, but in practice."
Practically, here Putin says that Ukraine must take economical responsibility for a region which has been economically destroyed, and whose policies would also in future be directly subordinate to Russia. Roughly the same as if Georgia had to pay fo Abkhazia or South Ossetia or Moldova for Transnistria.
Putin's and Lavrov's proxies in East Ukraine have already reiterated their statements.
Denis Pushilin, "DPR" envoy to Contact Group
"It is impossible to have peace without political decisions. Shelling will continue then."
http://tass.ru/en/world/802823
I have previously already described how Putin directed the immediate breakdown of Minsk2 ceasefire in Battle of Debaltseve.
http://venajavsukraina.blogspot.fi/2015/03/putin-commands-russian-proxy-forces-in.html
