Russia's president Putin and foreign minister Lavrov have outlined Russia's new aims in Ukraine in two clearly worded statements.
They explain why Russia has ordered its forces and its proxies in East Ukraine to continue and increase shelling and reconnaissance in force in East Ukraine.
Ukraine, EU countries and US must be aware of this new strategy.
It is of utmost importance France and Germany counter this new strategy in Paris 23rd June 2015 meeting of foreign ministers of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/normandy-foreign-ministers-meeting-on-ukraine-to-be-held-in-paris-on-june-23-391315.html
Sources:
1. Putin on 19th June 2015 in St Petersburg economical forum
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49733
2. Lavrov on 19th June 2015 in interview to RBK TV
http://www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/0/16095EF0BD04F36643257E69005DC2D5
The aims are best outlined by Putin in two answers to Charlie Rose, the 2nd and 3rd of these.
Firstly: Putin states there will be no ceasefire in East Ukraine in Russia - Ukraine war if Russia's conditions are not approved by Ukraine, France and Germany. In this quote Putin directly says that the Russian weapons and troops will be gone if and only if Russia's conditions are accepted.
Putin:
"I would like to say that if this
situation is resolved by political means, no weapons will be necessary,
but it
does require goodwill and a desire to enter into direct dialogue, and we
will
assist in this. What we cannot do and would never agree to is
for someone
somewhere, anywhere, to proceed from a position of force, first using
the police (they call it militia there), then special services, and then
the armed
forces.
Before the army units and the so-called battalions – armed nationalist units – appeared on those territories,
there were no weapons there; and there still would have been none had they
tried to resolve the situation by peaceful means right from the start. Weapons
appeared there only after they started killing people using tanks, artillery,
multiple launch rocket systems and aviation. That gave rise to resistance. Once
an attempt is made to resolve the issue by political means, the weapons will be
gone."
Secondly, Putin outlines the conditions for the "political settlement".
1. Ukraine must allow Russia via its proxies to dictate its constitution.
Putin:
"The first one is constitutional
reform, and the Minsk agreements say clearly: to provide autonomy or, as they
say decentralisation of power, let it be decentralisation. This is quite clear,
our European partners, France and Germany have spelt it out and we are quite
satisfied with it, just as the representatives of Donbass are. This is one
component."
The proposals are listed here:
Summary in English
http://tass.ru/en/world/794392
Full in Russian
http://dan-news.info/official/popravki-dnr-i-lnr-v-konstituciyu-ukrainy.html
Main points include:
a) Ukraine is to be outside any military alliances, in particularly NATO, proposed as new article 17 or 18
b) The regions with special status are to have an independent armed militia
c) The regions ave independent judiciary appointed by the regions
d) The regions are to control their natural resources
e) The regions will receive subsidies from Ukraine state budget
f) The Regions are allowed to conclude international treaties
g) The regions are allowed to conduct separate referendums
Analysis on proposals by James Socor
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=43927&cHash=8662cb5150445829740407118af00284#.VYbwP0YrpnQ
Parts of the amendment mentioning Crimea and Sevastopol have since been withdrawn but other proposals remain as is.
If implemented, the proposal would create effectively Russia - controlled sub-states within Ukraine and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and in practice also EU.
2. Ukraine must give DNR, DPR autonomy on conditions set by Russia via its proxies
Putin:
"The second
thing that has to be done – the law passed earlier on the special
status of these territories – Lugansk
and Donetsk, the unrecognised republics, should be enacted. It was
passed, but
still not acted upon. This requires a resolution of the Supreme Rada –
the Ukrainian Parliament, which is also covered in the Minsk agreements.
Our
friends in Kiev have formally
complied with this decision, but simultaneously with the passing
by the Rada of the resolution to enact the law they amended the law
itself – article 10, I believe, which practically renders the action
null and void. This is a mere
manipulation, and they have to move from manipulations to real action.
And finally, they need to pass a law on municipal
elections on these territories and to have the elections themselves. All this
is spelled out in the Minsk agreements, this is something I would like to draw
your attention to, and all this should be done with the agreement of Donetsk
and Lugansk."
Ukraine has already passed the law. First version was passed already on 16th September 2014:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11099126/Ukraine-separatists-granted-self-rule-and-amnesty-as-Kiev-agrees-EU-pact.html
The problem with the law to Putin's Russian government and its proxies is that the law foresees a honest election, where the current proxy authorities cannot stand as candidates. For this reason, Russia's proxies have proposed an election procedure rigged to make their victory certain.
Analysis on local election procedure proposed by Russia proxies by James Socor:
http://www.icds.ee/blog/article/donetsk-luhansk-peoples-republics-seek-international-legitimization-through-local-elections/
3. Ukraine must grant amnesty to the Russia proxies, and effectively to Putin himself
Putin:
"The third thing is a law on amnesty.
It is impossible to have a political dialogue with people who are threatened
with criminal persecution."
Note translation mistake, instead of correct "prosecution" the translation uses "persecution".
Ukraine has already passed an amnesty law, on 16th September 2014 but it gives amnesty only to those who have not engaged in serious crimes.
Thus it does not for instance give amnesty for starting the war in Sloviansk on 12th April 2014 to Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, no amnesty for those responsible for shooting down MH17 as Igor Girkin, Alexander Borodai and all their underlings and superiors, nor amnesty for Arseni "Motorola" Pavlov and Mikhail "Givi" Tolstykh and their superiors Alexander Zakharchenko and Eduard Basurin for murdering and mistreating Ukraine POW:s.
The main reason is that any trial in this issue would bring forth evidence that the atrocities have been conducted with permission, with equipment and troops or according to direct orders from Russia's supreme commander, who is according to normal "command responsibility" doctrine responsible for actions of those under him as long as he has not seen that they are prosecuted for their crimes.
It is clear that here Putin refers, first of all, to himself.
4. Ukraine must foot the bill for the occupied area
Putin:
"Finally,
they
have to begin the economic recovery of these territories, of course.
I would
like to repeat something I have already said many times: the excuse
that ‘we do not have the money’ does
not work here. If the current authorities in Kiev believe that this is
Ukrainian territory inhabited by Ukrainian citizens who have the right
to receive, say, disability benefits or the pensions that they earned
under the existing Ukrainian law, the Kiev authorities cannot refuse
to pay, they simply
have no right to do so. They are violating their own constitution. All
this has
to be done, and not in words, but in practice."
Practically, here Putin says that Ukraine must take economical responsibility for a region which has been economically destroyed, and whose policies would also in future be directly subordinate to Russia. Roughly the same as if Georgia had to pay fo Abkhazia or South Ossetia or Moldova for Transnistria.
Putin's and Lavrov's proxies in East Ukraine have already reiterated their statements.
Denis Pushilin, "DPR" envoy to Contact Group
"It is impossible to have peace without political decisions. Shelling will continue then."
http://tass.ru/en/world/802823
I have previously already described how Putin directed the immediate breakdown of Minsk2 ceasefire in Battle of Debaltseve.
http://venajavsukraina.blogspot.fi/2015/03/putin-commands-russian-proxy-forces-in.html
sunnuntai 21. kesäkuuta 2015
maanantai 23. maaliskuuta 2015
Putin commands Russian & proxy forces in East Ukraine – proof on Kremlin website
Russian
president Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov claimed on 23rd March 2015:
"Contrary to what NATO and European
countries say, self-defense forces in Donbas are not our puppets. President
Putin has some influence on them because they respect him, but he cannot order
them to lay down arms,"
Article:
Peskov’s
claim is fully untrue. Proof is on the
Kremlin official website, even translated to correct English.
There, Putin
makes thinly veiled orders to the Russian and proxy forces in East Ukraine.
I analyze
below following cases shortly:
1. Putin definition of Novorossiya 17th April 2014
2. Putin commands to ”Novorossiya militia”
regarding Ilovaysk on 29th August 2014
3. Putin justifications of breaking Minsk 1 ceasefire
24th Oct and 19th Dec 2014
4. Putin permission to Russian ”volunteers” fighting in Ukraine on 19th
December 2014
5. Putin orders to take Debaltseve, breaking Minsk
2 ceasefire on 12th and 17th February 2015
1. Putin definition of Novorossiya 17th April 2014
Five days
after a group of 52 Russian, Crimean and East Ukrainian militants commanded by allegedly
former FSB colonel Igor Girkin on 12th April 2014 occupied cities of Sloviansk
and Kramatorsk and assisted another former Russian officer, Igor Bezler to take
over city of Horlivka, Putin addressed in the ”Direct line” interview the
subject of ”Novorossiya”: Link: http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/7034
Putin
defined the area of ”Novorossiya” as eight oblasts in southern and eastern
Ukraine. Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts are not directly mentioned but
they follow from the delineation given by Putin.
”Regarding
the question of what should come first: a constitutional referendum followed by
elections, or elections first to stabilise the situation and then a referendum.
The essential issue is how to ensure the legitimate rights and interests of
ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in the southeast of Ukraine. I would like
to remind you that what was called Novorossiya (New Russia) back in the tsarist
days – Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Nikolayev and Odessa – were not part
of Ukraine back then. These territories were given to Ukraine in the 1920s by
the Soviet government. Why? Who knows. They were won by Potyomkin and Catherine
the Great in a series of well-known wars. The centre of that territory was
Novorossiysk, so the region is called Novorossiya. Russia lost these
territories for various reasons, but the people remained.
Today, they
live in Ukraine, and they should be full citizens of their country. That’s what
this is all about. The issue is not whether the referendum on decentralisation
or federalisation is followed by elections or the elections come before the
architecture of the state is changed. The key issue is providing guarantees to
these people. Our role is to facilitate a solution in Ukraine, to ensure that
there are guarantees. People from southeast Ukraine will ask you, will ask us
and the current authorities in Kiev: “Fine, the elections will be held on May
25, but do you want us to recognise their outcome? You’ll forget your promises
the very next day and send new oligarchs to Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk, and so
on. What about guarantees? We need answers.” I hope that an answer will be
found.”
There were
different attempts in whole area defined by Putin to occupy city
administrations by pro-Russian and Russian crowds, which were, however,
successful only in Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. Most serious clashes outside
them took part in Kharkiv and Odessa during March, April and May 2014, which
however remained in control of Ukrainian authorities. The ”referendum” mentioned by Putin was held in occupied parts
of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts on 11th May 2014 and was used to legitimize
creation of so-called Donetsk and Lugansk People’s republics.
2. Putin commands to ”Novorossiya militia”
regarding Ilovaysk on 29th August 2014
With the
title of ”President of Russia Vladimir Putin addressed Novorossiya militia”
Putin issued on 29th August 2014 to Russian and proxy forces surrounding
Ilovaysk the following command:
”As a result
of the militia’s actions, a large number of Ukrainian service members who did
not participate in the military operation of their own volition but while
following orders have been surrounded.
I call on
the militia groups to open a humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian service
members who have been surrounded, so as to avoid any needless loss of life,
giving them the opportunity to leave the combat area unimpeded and reunite with
their families, to return them to their mothers, wives and children, and to
quickly provide medical assistance to those who were injured in the course of
the military operation.”
Obeying the
command, Russian and proxy forces did agree on a corridor for Ukraine forces to
retreat. However, as the Ukrainian forces retreated with vehicles and weapons
and included volunteer battalions, the Russian and proxy forces shelled the
column , killing a large part of the force and took most of the rest prisoner.
3.
Putin justifications of breaking Minsk 1
ceasefire 24th Oct and 19th Dec 2014
Putin
justified several times the failure of the Donetsk and Lugansk ”people’s republics”
to fulfill the Minsk agreements, referring to unsigned agreement on demarcation line, justifying the
continued fighting in particular at the Donetsk airport with that.
In Valdai
discussion club on 24th October 2014
”For
instance, Ukrainian army units were supposed to leave certain locations where
they were stationed prior to the Minsk agreements, while the militia army was
supposed to leave certain settlements they were holding prior to these
agreements. However, neither is the Ukrainian army withdrawing from the
locations they should leave, nor is the militia army withdrawing from the
settlements they have to move out of, referring, and I will be frank now – to
the fact that their families remain there (I mean the militia) and they fear
for their safety. Their families, their wives and children live there. This is
a serious humanitarian factor.”
In press
conference on 19th December 2014:
”Should the
Minsk agreements be implemented or shouldn’t they? Yes they should! Let me
repeat: I was one of those who initiated them and we… I’ll say an important
thing. Look, I’d like everyone to hear this. Our representatives in Minsk
signed a memorandum in September and there were protocols to it that defined
the disengagement line. The representatives of Donetsk didn’t sign those
protocols. That’s the problem. They said at the very start: We can’t.
When we
tried to insist – I’ll be frank with you about this, since the public needs to
know these things – they told us that they can’t leave these villages (there
were three or four disputed villages), because their families live there, and
they can’t risk their children, wives and sisters being killed or raped. This
is the most important thing. However, the Ukrainian officials did not withdraw
their troops from the areas that they were supposed to leave, such as the
Donetsk Airport, either. They're staying there.”
The planned
withdrawals never took place, but Russian and proxy forces continued their
assaults on Donetsk airport, finally taking the ruins of the new terminal on 21st
January 2015. The fighting in the area around the airport has continued after
that.
4.
Putin permission to Russian ”volunteers” fighting in Ukraine on 18th Dec 2014
In news
conference on 18th December 2014, Putin gave official permission to military
personnel to ”volunteer” to fight in Ukraine:
Link: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/23406
”Now to the
first question, about responsibility. In Russia, like in any other presidential
republic, it is the president who is responsible for everything. And
responsibility for military personnel rests with the Commander-in-Chief. Let me
remind you that in Russia this is one and the same person.
All those
who are following their heart and are fulfilling their duty by voluntarily
taking part in hostilities, including in southeast Ukraine, are not
mercenaries, since they are not paid for what they do.”
The official
permission by Putin is significant, because after this official permission, he
is responsible for the Russian military personnel, both active and reserve,
fighting as volunteers in Ukraine.
This definitely is war of aggression according to Uniter Nations General Assembly resolution 3314, 14 December 1974, article 3 case g).
”(g) The
sending by or on behalf of a State of armed bands, groups, irregulars or
mercenaries, which carry out acts of armed force against another State of such
gravity as to amount to the acts listed above, or its substantial involvement
therein.”
5.
Putin orders to take Debaltseve, breaking Minsk
2 ceasefire on 12th and 17th February 2015
After Minsk 2 ceasefire was concluded, Putin made two statements regarding town of Debaltseve.
First, in Minsk on 12th February 2015:
Putin made a
statement emphasizing that the Ukrainian forces in Debaltseve were surrounded.
According to other participants of the negotiations, Debaltseve was the main
stumbling block in ceasefire negotiations, as Russian negotiators demanded
Debaltseve should be surrendered. Putin commented as follows:
”We proceed
from the notion that all the parties will show restraint until the complete
ceasefire. The problem here was that representatives of the Donetsk and Lugansk
people’s republics claimed that in response to the aggressive actions of the
Kiev authorities they not only held back the Kiev forces but also managed to
mount an offensive and surrounded a group of 6,000 to 8,000 servicemen. They,
of course, proceed from the idea that this group will lay down arms and stop
its resistance.
We
nevertheless call on both sides to show restraint and in order to avoid
unnecessary excessive bloodshed and casualties they should do everything
possible to ensure that the separation of forces, mainly the heavy equipment,
is conducted without unnecessary bloodshed.
Representatives
of the Ukrainian authorities believe their troops have not been surrounded and
therefore think this process will go sufficiently smoothly. I had some initial
doubts that I can share with you. If the troops really had been surrounded, then,
logically, they will try to break free, while those who are on the outside will
try to arrange for a corridor for their trapped servicemen.
Eventually,
we agreed with President Poroshenko that we will instruct our experts – I am
ready to do so – to establish what is actually going on there. In addition, I
will repeat, we will try to develop a set of measures to verify the
implementation of our decisions by both sides.”
After this
statement, the attacks of the Russian and proxy forces increased in intensity.
In Budapest
on 17th February 2015 Putin made an appeal that the Ukrainian forces surrounded
by Russian and proxy forces in Debaltseve should surrender as an answer to a
journalis’s question:
”Yes,
clashes are still taking place around Debaltsevo. But there too the scale and
intensity of operations is less than it was before. What is happening there was
not unexpected. According to our information, a group of Ukrainian troops were
already surrounded there before the meeting in Minsk last week. I spoke about
this at the meeting in Minsk. I said that the surrounded troops would try to
break out of the encirclement and there would be attempts from the outside too
to break through, and the militia, who had got the Ukrainian troops surrounded,
would resist these attempts and try to keep the encirclement in place, and this
would inevitably lead to further clashes. Another attempt to break through was
made this morning, I don’t know what the media have been saying, I have not
managed to follow all of the news, but I know that at ten o’clock this morning
the Ukrainian armed forces made another attempt to break open the encirclement.
It was unsuccessful in the end.
I hope very
much that the people responsible in the Ukrainian government will not prevent
Ukrainian servicemen from laying down their arms. If they cannot or will not
take this important decision and give this order, they should at least not
prosecute those who are ready to lay down their arms in order to save their own
and others’ lives. At the same time, I hope that militia representatives and
the authorities in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic
will not detain these people and will not prevent them from freely leaving the
conflict zone and encirclement and returning to their families.”
After this
statement, the Ukrainian forces managed mostly to break out of the encirclement
in Debaltseve, foiling Putin’s order.
A Russian
contract soldier from Buryatia, Dorzhi Batomkunuev was interviewed by Novaya
Gazeta in Donetski hospital. He had participated in combat around Debaltseve
since 8th February and was wounded on 19th February in a T-72B tank. According to him, 90% of the
forces that took Debaltseve were russian forces:
Novaya Gazeta 2nd March 2015
Novaya Gazeta 2nd March 2015
Whole
article in English:
We can
conclude:
-
Russian and proxy forces in East Ukraine are
under president Putin’s command
-
Even in case of irregular troops, Putin has full
responsibility for Russian citizens and arms which have been allowed over the
border by Russian authorities.
torstai 5. maaliskuuta 2015
Ukraine – borderland: background and journalism on Ukrainian revolution and the Russia – Ukraine crisis (book review)
The book by
Anna-Lena Laurén and Peter Lodenius is one of the first books on Ukraine´s
Euromaidan revolution and the following Russia – Ukraine crisis and war. In the
book, Laurén’s journalistic and Lodenius’s background parts are intertwined.
Laurén
writes beautifully and sympathizes with the fates of Ukrainians. The texts deal
with Maidan demonstrations and revolution, beginning of war in Dobass,
occupation of Crimea and the fronts of information war. A central merit is the
description of thoughts and opinions of ukrainians. Laurén deals both Russia’s
role in the crisis and its Ukrainian features and analyzes the information
warfare sharply.
The
background texts by Lodenius deal with reasons, the longing for European
reforms of many ukrainians, choice between EU and Eurasian union, the process
of the Euromaidan revolultion and the beginning of ”separatism” and ”Russian
world” in the conference in Kharkiv on 22nd February 2014 by Eastern area
leaders, formerly loyal to Yanukovich. Lodenius presents the background of the
crisis in depth and reasons for activities of different groupings and the
geopolitical aims of EU and Russia in Ukraine.
In the end
of the book there are letters by Lodenius and Laurén to each other, analyzing
the book process and the work of each other. Niklas Meltio’s pictures are
concentrated as an attachment, they don’t illustrate the texts themselves.
The book is
a readable and skillful book on the current central question of European
security. For myself, Lodenius’ backgrounds opened new views on the situation
in Ukraine. Laurén is one of the Western
journalists with most knowledge on Ukraine, her skills deserve international
recognition. The time for final analysis is later, and I hope Laurén and Lodenius return to the issue.
Book is recommended reading for all who want in-depth picture of the Ukrainian situation. Hopefully it is soon translated in addition to original Swedish and soon published Finnish to Ukrainian, Russian and English.
Book is recommended reading for all who want in-depth picture of the Ukrainian situation. Hopefully it is soon translated in addition to original Swedish and soon published Finnish to Ukrainian, Russian and English.
Anna-Lena
Laurén & Peter Lodenius, bilder Niklas Meltio
Ukraina –
gränslandet
Schildts
& Söderströms, Helsingfors 2015
Ukraina – rajamaa: taustoitus ja journalistiikkaa Ukrainan vallankumouksesta ja Venäjän-Ukrainan kriisistä
Anna-Lena Laurénin ja Peter Lodeniuksen kirja on ensimmäisiä
suomalaisia esityksiä Ukrainan
Euromaidan – vallankumouksesta ja siitä seuranneesta Venäjän – Ukrainan kriisistä
ja sodasta. Kirjassa vuorottelevat Laurénin journalistiset ja Lodeniuksen
taustoittavat tekstit.
Lauren kirjoittaa kauniisti ja eläytyy ukrainalaisten
kohtaloihin. Tekstit käsittelevät Maidanin mielenosoituksia ja vallankumousta,
Donbassin sodan alkua, Krimin miehitystä sekä informaatiosodan rintamia. Keskeinen
ansio on ukrainalaisten ajatusten ja mielipiteiden kuvaaminen. Laurén
käsittelee sekä Venäjän osuutta kriisiin että sen ukrainalaisia ulottuvuuksia
ja arvioi terävästi informaatiosodan luonnetta.
Lodeniuksen taustoittavat tekstit käsittelevät syitä monien
ukrainalaisten eurooppalaisten uudistusten kaipuuta, valintaa EU:n ja Euraasian
unionin välillä, Euromaidan – vallankumouksen kulkua ja ”separatismin” ja ”venäläisen
maailman” alkua 22.2.2014 Harkovassa pidetyn itäisten alueiden, aiemmin
Janukovitsille uskollisten johtajien kokouksessa. Lodenius syventää kriisin
taustoja ja syitä eri ryhmittymien toimintaan sekä EU:n ja Venäjän
geopoliittisia tavoitteita Ukrainassa.
Kirjan päättävät Lodeniuksen ja Laurénin kirjeet toisilleen,
arvioiden kirjaprosessia ja toistensa työtä. Niklas Meltion kuvat on keskitetty
liitteeksi, ne eivät kuvita suoraan tekstejä.
Kirja on luettava ja taidokas ajankohtaiskirja Euroopan
turvallisuuden kannalta keskeisestä kysymyksestä. Minulle erityisesti
Lodeniuksen taustoitukset avasivat uusia näkökulmia Ukrainan tilanteeseen.
Laurén on yksi parhaiten Ukrainaa tuntevia länsimaisia journalisteja, jonka
osaaminen ansaitsee kansainvälistä tunnustusta. Lopullisen analyysin aika on myöhemmin,
ja toivottavasti Laurén ja Lodenius palaavat aiheeseen.
Kirja on suositeltavaa lukemista kaikille jotka haluavat
syventyä Ukrainan tilanteeseen. Toivottavasti se pian käännetään suomen lisäksi
ukrainaksi, venäjäksi ja englanniksi.
Luin kirjan itse ruotsinkielisestä alkuteoksesta.
Saatavana:
Anna-Lena Laurén & Peter Lodenius, bilder Niklas Meltio
Anna-Lena Laurén & Peter Lodenius, bilder Niklas Meltio
Ukraina –
gränslandet
Schildts
& Söderströms, Helsingfors 2015
Julkaistaan 17.3.2015:
Anna-Lena
Laurén & Peter Lodenius, valokuvat Niklas Meltio
Ukraina –
rajamaa
Suomennos
Liisa Ryömä
Teos,
Helsinki 2015
Tilaa:
Blogitekstit (Atom)